I am not sure why, but when I think of the word "whipsaw*" I think of a crazy amusement park ride that spins you around every which way - sort of like the one pictured below. When the ride is over, you either throw up or come very close to throwing up. That definition is …
2019 Recession Outlook
As we enter 2019 and the 10th year of the economic expansion here in the United States, many end-of-year research reports will address the big question: is the US economy headed into a recession* sometime in 2019? There are dozens of indicators that have a history of correctly predicting recessions. Those same indicators also have …
Skin In The Game
I recently finished reading Nassim Taleb's newest book: "Skin In The Game: Hidden Asymmetries In Everyday Life". The phrase "skin in the game" refers to having a personal stake in something (a decision, policy, advice given, etc...). That "stake" can be monetary, reputation or something else, but Taleb believes that people should be exposed to …
Easy Money
"The easy money has been made" is a very dangerous sentence. It implies that whatever gains you have now, were easy to achieve - whereas any future gains are going to be much harder to come by. I love this chart from Morgan Housel* that shows various financial news outlets and the date when they …
We Need The Wall
We need "The Wall". No - I am not talking about the proposed border wall between the US and Mexico. I am talking about the "Wall of Worry". The "Wall of Worry" is not a physical wall. "The Wall of Worry" is made up of everything that investors think may knock the stock market down …
